Here’s what we said was going to happen in 2007 one year ago, compared to what really happened… Before we dive into next year’s predictions, let’s look at how our previous trend predictions worked out:
1. Apple keeps its iPod monopoly and increases its OS market share from 5% to 5.1%
All right, so that’s really two predictions in one. The first (Apple keeping its iPod monopoly), was 100% true, but the second was only 5% true. Truth is, Apple had one of its best years. Depending on what market share you’re looking at, the Cupertino-based company gained significant ground. The OS market share rose to 6.81 percent.
2. Google scores against both Microsoft and Yahoo due to its massive marketing data advantage
200% true. There’s nothing more to say, really.
3. Blogs bloom, and prepare for the 2008 election
100% true—but that was an easy one.
4. Social networks become a place where members make money
50% true. We’re getting there.
5. Newspapers open up
100% true. See: The New York Times. The Wall Street Journal will follow soon (a first step has already been taken).
6. Big ad investments start streaming in
80% true. It’ll take another 6 months. The numbers are clear though.
7. New, Internet-focused ad agencies open up
0% true. As far as we can tell, nothing happened. We admit we didn’t understand the mechanics of online advertisement well enough back then. It’ll take another year. Yet, from what we hear from our old world friends in advertisement and brand consulting in Japan, Europe and the States, the big classic communication agencies start to shape up for interactive media. Too late for Online only ad agencies? No, online ad agencies are still a great business case, but it gets tougher to build up a brand, when the big guys stand in your way (no matter whether they know what they’re doing or whether they just say so).
8. Viruses and spam become an even bigger hassle
100% true. In the mean time 90% of all traffic is unsolicited email. All our accounts are under constant bombardment. We are thinking about switching to Gmail. You will have to read the following 2008 predictions to understand why we hesitate.
9. Digital identity initiates a major change that makes the web more reliable, user and investor-friendly
200% true. We were positive that people would become more relaxed about their real identity online. What we didn’t see was Facebook succeeding so strongly in that role. The event of the year was when people began to use their real names online without even noticing. The platform that introduced real online identities was Facebook—not digital ID or anything else. They don’t call it identity, they call it social graph.
UPDATE: Here we go—Nine days into 2008 Google and Facebook joined forces on dataportability.org to form the center of online identity.
10. All in all, 2007 is the Internet’s summer of love, and a preparation for the big infolution in 2008
And a summer of love it was. The infolution was not a prediction for 2007, but for 2008. We’ll post the predictions for 2008 tomorrow.